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PonderousMan - Can you say blowout?
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10:18 am October 24th, 2008
dghall
[info]dghall
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Can you say blowout?
(Edit - revised last sentence, and added link...)

Er, um...  it would appear McCain is losing Montana.

MONTANA fer chrissakes...!!!

Take that, along with huge lines of early voters in dozens of states... and you've got to wonder just how crazy this will be.

(Side Note to [info]mtgordon :  My friend, I gotta say, I hope you have that $100 set aside, 'cause I really think I'm gonna be collecting it...)

Of course, he's losing because of Ron Paul - but that's so beautifully appropriate, it's almost ironic.  (I wonder what would have happened if Ron Paul had really campaigned under a new third party... and you can be he will be doing it in '12...)

Oh, and I am really looking forward to watching the Republican party disintegrate civil war over the next, oh, two years...  It's gonna be a blast!

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Thread started by Mark Gordon
mtgordon From: [info]mtgordon Date: October 24th, 2008 03:51 pm (UTC) (Link)
Today's news (DJIA down 300 points at the moment) isn't good for McCain, but I still can't see him losing by 20 points.

When the economy is in steep decline, and the GOP is widely seen as being responsible, social conservatives start paying less attention to distractions like abortion and gay marriage and actually start voting based on their personal interests, and red states come into play. Reagan won in 1980 because he was able to pin the economic woes on Carter; this year, Obama is in the same strategic position as Reagan. Reagan won the electoral vote roughly 10:1, but his lead in the popular vote was less than 10 points. There hasn't been a 20-point margin in an open presidential race since 1920.
(Reply) (Thread)
dghall From: [info]dghall Date: October 24th, 2008 04:18 pm (UTC) (Link)
Er, I don't know where you're getting your numbers, but this table lists greater than 20 point margins in 1972, 1964, 1936, and 1924 and nearly 20 points in 1984.

(I must have read my original source wrong when writing my original posts about Reagan...I don't seem to be able to find the blog entry I based that on, but this site is much better data, I'd say...)

We agree that a 20 point margin is a stretch, in any case - but I really do think your $ is at risk. But hey, I tried to warn ya... *grin*
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
mtgordon From: [info]mtgordon Date: October 24th, 2008 04:23 pm (UTC) (Link)
Note my word choice: "open presidential race". Incumbents have big advantages, since they raise fewer questions with voters, and all the years you mentioned had incumbents: 1972 (Nixon), 1964 (Johnson), 1936 (FDR), and 1924 (Coolidge). 1984 (Reagan) falls into the same category.
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dghall From: [info]dghall Date: October 24th, 2008 04:57 pm (UTC) (Link)
ah, once again I missed the key words... I gotta start reading more carefully.

Hrm, well, ok, maybe I'll be sending you a check after all... but I'm not writing it until at least Nov 5th, and I would suggest you make sure you are following Mr Lehrer's advice...

(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
mtgordon From: [info]mtgordon Date: October 24th, 2008 05:00 pm (UTC) (Link)
Oh? What's he advocating these days? Cash in a mattress? Gold? Small arms ammunition?
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
dghall From: [info]dghall Date: October 24th, 2008 05:15 pm (UTC) (Link)
Actually, it's rather old advice...

"Do not make book, if you cannot cover bets"

("Be Prepared", ca. 1953?)

Or did you think I said Mr' Lehman? *grin*

(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
mtgordon From: [info]mtgordon Date: October 24th, 2008 05:30 pm (UTC) (Link)
Oh, silly me. Given how much I've been watching the news recently, I'd assumed you meant Jim Lehrer.
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
dghall From: [info]dghall Date: October 24th, 2008 05:37 pm (UTC) (Link)
ah, ok. Understandable... but I was trying to link back to the start of the whole credit default thread, which I'm pretty sure I started with self-same quote...

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